Sunday, February 1, 2009

2010 US Senate Races.

Alabama- (Shelby-R)- Safe Republican. Competitive but Republican favored if open.
Alaska- (Murkowski-R)- The real battle is in the Republican side between Governor Sarah Palin vs US Senator Lisa Murkowski. (Safe Republican)
Arizona- (McCain-R)- McCain-R is likely to face a primary challenge from Anti Immigration former Congressman JD Hayworth. If McCain wins the primary- Republican Favored. If McCain loses or open seat. (Leans Democratic Takeover).
Arkansas-(Lincoln-D)- Safe Democratic. Republican's failed to recruit a challenger against Arkansas's other Democratic Senator Mark Pryor- It is unlikely a top tier Republican challenger will emerge against Lincoln in 2010.
California-(Boxer-D)-Safe Democratic. Boxer beat her last Republican opponent former CA Secretary of State Bill Jones by a 20% margin in 2004.
Colorado-(Bennett-D)-Democratic Favored. appointed US Senator Michael Bennett-D is running for a first full term in 2010. Republicans are stuck with former US Congressman Bob Beauprez who lost badly in the 2006 CO Governors Race-
Connecticut-(Dodd-D)-Safe Democratic.
Delaware-(OPEN-Kaufman-D)- Safe Democratic. Say Hello to US Senator Beau Biden.
Florida- (OPEN-Martinez-R)-Tossup. Democratic Nominee is either US Rep Kendrick Meek or State Sen/former State House Minority Leader Dan Gelber- Both from Miami Dade County. Republican Nominee is Conservative US Reps Vern Buchanan or Connie Mack Jr.
Georgia- (Isakson-R)-Safe Republican.
Hawaii- (Inouye-D)-Safe Democratic.
Idaho-(Crapo-R)-Safe Republican
Illinios-(Burris-D) Democratic Favored. appointed US Senator Roland Burris will face a tough primary challenge from either Attorney General Lisa Madigan, Comptroller Dan Hynes, Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias, or US Representative Jan Schakowsky. Based on Roland Burris record of losing Democratic primaries during the last 3 Governor's race. Burris will lose the Democratic Nomination. whoever wins the Democratic nomination is favored to win in the November General Election over likely Republican nominee US Rep Mark Kirk.
Indiana-(Bayh-D)-Safe Democratic
Iowa-(Grassley-R)-Safe Republican if Grassley runs again. Likely Democratic pick up if open.
Kansas-(OPEN-Brownback-R)-Tossup if Governor Kathleen Sebelius runs. Republican Favored if Sebelius does not run.
Kentucky (Bunning-R)- Lean Democratic Takeover if Bunning runs again. If Bunning retires-Tossup. Democratic candidate is Lt Governor Dan Mongiordo or Attorney General Jack Conway.
Louisiana-(Vitter-R)- Leans Republican. Potential Democratic candidates is Lt Governor Mitch Landreiu or Attorney General James Caldwell.
Maryland-(Mikulski-D)-Safe Democratic.
Missouri-(OPEN-Bond-R)- Democrats are waiting for Robin Carnahan to announce- Lean Democratic takeover.
Nevada-(Reid-D)- Democratic Favored. Republican's don't have a top tier candidate to Daschlize Harry Reid.
New Hampshire-(who ever replaces Judd Gregg-R). Likely Democratic Takeover. Democratic Nominee US Rep Paul Hodes.
New York-A (Schumer-D)-Safe Democratic.
New York-B (Gillibrand-D)-Democratic Favored- Likely Republican Nominee is Conservative LI US Rep Peter King.
North Carolina-(Burr-R)- Tossup. this is a cursed seat. Democratic Nominee is Attorney General Roy Cooper.
North Dakota-(Dorgan-D)-Safe Democratic.
Ohio- (OPEN-Voinovich-R)- Leans Democratic Takeover. Democratic candidates US Rep Tim Ryan or Lt Governor Lee Fisher is favored to defeat ex US Rep/US Trade Rep/OMB Director Rob Portman.
Oklahoma-(Coburn-R)- Safe Republican. Competitive if Governor Brad Henry.
Oregon-(Wyden-D)-Safe Democratic.
Pennsylvania-(Specter-R)- Leans Republican- Likely Democratic challenger US Rep Allyson Schwartz. If Specter retires- Democratic pickup.
South Carolina-(DeMint-R)-Safe Republican
South Dakota-(Thune-R)-Safe Republican
Utah-(Bennett-R)-Safe Republican
Vermont-(Leahy-D)-Safe Democratic
Washington-(Murray-D)-Safe Democratic
Wisconsin-(Feingold-D)-Safe Democratic.

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